Checking in on CU hoops about midway through the season with this week’s basket-bullets:
- State of the season (so far): The Buffs are going to have to fight tooth-and-nail to eek out a winning record this season. Currently sitting 9-7, CU will only be favored in 3 games the rest of the way: Arizona State, UCF and TCU, all at home. Head Coach Roll Tad has had only 1 losing season in his previous 14 seasons at CU. This season he’ll be hard pressed to avoid his second losing season.
- Home Sweet Dome? The lack of success at home this season has been worrisome — CU has already lost three times at home this season after losing once at home all last season. Tad Boyle has complained about low attendance at the CU Event Center this season, and losing the last five games in a row probably won’t help in that regard. Still, there are some marquee home games remaining this season, including Houston and Kansas, so hopefully folks can get out to the Former Foam Dome.
- So what’s the problem? The problem isn’t the defense. Tad Boyle has built his program on defense and rebounding, and the defense is serviceable with a 99.3 AdjD, ranking 60th in the country.
- So what’s the problem? The problem is turnovers. And offense, generally. But mostly turnovers. Colorado’s offense ranks 125th in the nation with adjusted efficiency at 108.8, compared to last year’s adjusted efficiency metric of 118.4, which was ranked 20th nationally. The reason for the drop is largely turnover percentage, where CU turns it over on 21.3% of its possessions (and is ranked #344 nationally, just ahead of Coppin State and Little Rock), while not forcing nearly enough turnovers. In fact, CU’s defensive on-ball pressure has been poor thus far, and CU ranks 241st nationally in forcing turnovers. Julian Hammond, who has probably been Colorado’s best player this season, has been struggling with turnovers.
- Post Malone: CU needs to find a way to get Elijah Malone the ball more – Post Malone’s offensive efficiency ratings are high for this team and he shoots the ball well when he gets it. While he can get out-athleted on occasion by Big 12 “bigs,” he’s one of the few guys in the lineup that can present matchup issues to teams.
- Bright spot: RJ Smith can shoot. He can really shoot.
- But can he shoot? Yeah, he can shoot. He’s hitting 49% of his 3s, which is Blair Wilson-esque. The problem? There are seven — yes, seven!!!! — players that launch more shots on average than RJ. That has to change. While Smith is a great shooter, he’s turnover prone and has the 2nd highest turnover rate on the team, behind Assane Diop. The offense will improve if Smith can shift over to a traditional 3-and-D role and playing catch-and-shoot basketball on offense as opposed to playing as a shot creator, where his turnovers can add up.
- BD: Watching Bangot Dak play is worth the price of admission at the CU Events Center. On any given night, you never know whether BD will look more like Kevin Garnett or Ben Mills. Last night against Cincinnati, BD channeled the Big Ticket, scoring 19 points, grabbing 8 rebounds, and blocking 8 (!!!) shots. The key for BD will be consistency because if he can play like he did last night against Cincinnati, CU will have an NBA player in the lineup. Also, if you get to the Coors Event Center early, watch Dak. He loves to throw down some ferocious dunks in pregame warmups.
- Up next: the Buffs travel to Stillwater for a game against the Oklahoma State cowboys on Saturday. The next home game is this Tuesday, January 21st against BYU at 9 pm (!) at the CU Events Center.
Nice work. Writing is so smooth!!