“Time To Put Up or Shut Up” — BuffsBlog
Old school Mountain States Conference rivals Colorado and Wyoming square off on Saturday night (kickoff at 8:15 pm, which is past my bedtime) for the first time since 2009. Colorado has dominated the series 24-2, but CU is struggling — particularly againt the run — and Wyoming is nothing if not physical. It should be an interesting game. Why? Read more.
Betting
Vegas has the Buffs sitting as a 13.5-point favorite, with the over/under about 44.5. It’s clear Vegas expects a low-scoring, physical game. If you think Wyoming is going to cover, take the under. If Wyoming covers, it’s because they were able to pound out long, sustained drives that shortened the clock. If CU covers, I fully expect that the game hits the over.
Bottom line is that if CU can’t figure out how to stop the run (again), the Cowboys have enough grit to cover or even sneak out of Boulder with a win.
About the Opponent
The University of Wyoming is the state’s only division one college. Its acceptance rate is also one of the highest in the nation, as the school accepts over 97% of applicants. Seriously, if you send in an application, you’re getting into school.
This makes sense when you consider that Wyoming’s most famous alumni is former Vice President Dick Cheney. Other famous alums include Los Angeles Lakers owner (and Jeannie’s dad!) Dr. Jerry Buss and former MLB manager Art Howe.
Wyoming’s brown and yellow color scheme has been the butt of “poop and pee” jokes for decades. Remember to tip your servers, ladies and gentlemen.
Last, it’s windy in Laramie. Very, very windy.
The Scene
It’s Family Weekend under the lights, an 8:15 p.m. kickoff at Folsom. The student section will resemble the kids in Lord of the Flies. The west side of the stadium will be respectable until about 9:30 pm, after which half the fans on that side of the stadium will head home to go to bed.
It’s a white out so remember to wear your white button up shirts and wedding gowns.
When CU has the Ball
Last week against #16 ranked Utah, Wyoming’s defense held strong through the first half, limiting Utah to just 3 first half points. Now, if you dig a little deeper, you’ll see that Utah missed 3 first half field goals and had a key turnover deep in Wyoming territory. Still, the Cowboys managed to frustrate Utah’s offense and keep things close until the 2nd half.
Wyoming’s defense is led by its stout linebacker crew. Each of Wyoming’s linebackers — Enock Sibromana, Brayden Johnson, and Evan Eller — have season-long PFF score of over 80. That’s incredibly impressive. They’re fast, run to the ball, and are aggressive.
Linebacker Brayden Johnson is a transfer from Oklahoma Baptist and has 20 tackles thus far on the season. Linebacker Evan Eller, a transfer from Virginia Military Institute, also has 20 tackles.
CU is going to try to play balanced football. With Kaidon Salter back at QB, look for CU to try to run the ball more (both with Simeon Price and Kaidon Salter). CU has struggled to run the ball, in large part because the offensive line hasn’t been very good at run blocking. All five offensive linemen have run blocking PFF scores of between 55 and 65. No CU offensive lineman is materially better than average at run blocking. The offensive line has had a difficult time with gap-replace schemes, something that Wyoming will try to exploit.
CU’s pass blocking, however, has been extremely strong. Jordan Seaton is an absolutely colossal pass blocker – his PFF pass blocking score of 91.1 against Houston was the best in the country. Other linemen were elite, too: Zarian McGill had a pass blocking score of 85.8, Andre Roye Jr. had a pass blocking score of 82.3, Zylon Crisler had a pass blocking score of 79.3 and Zavier Hill had a pass blocking score of 69.7. This is top-shelf pass blocking, folks. For reference, PFF considers a 60 grade to be average.
I think CU is going to try to run but then take deep shots, using its speed advantage on the outside. Get the ball to Omarrion Miller, Sincere Brown, and Joseph Williams in space, and CU will score points because Wyoming doesn’t have the athleticism to keep up.
When Wyoming has the Ball
Wyoming struggles on offense.
Against FBS teams this season, Wyoming has averaged 8 points per game. There’s just not any explosiveness to the offense, and this is one of the reasons the over/under for this game is a very low 44.5.
Don’t expect Wyoming to have success running the QB. Unlike Georgia Tech and Houston, Wyoming’s QB isn’t mobile. Kaden Anderson, Wyoming’s QB, has run for -39 yards on the season. This should make it easier for CU’s defense to focus on the running backs without having to worry about QB keepers and misdirection.
Sam Scott is Wyoming’s leading rusher, toting the ball 44 times for 203 yards. Terron Kellman and Samuel Harris also get carries. Expect Wyoming to try to pound the Buffs early – and they should. CU has coughed up 430 yards of offense per game, including 4.7 per carry and nearly 5 yards a pop on first down. Even non-runners like Conner Weigman gashed them for 83 rushing yards. Wyoming, meanwhile, churns out 157 yards per game.
For Colorado, look for Tawfiq Byard to continue his ascension. The safety had 14 tackles against Houston – despite not starting — and was one of CU’s best players against Houston. The other player to watch for is true freshman defensive end Alexander McPherson. This summer, BuffsBlog wrote that McPherson was impressing returning players with his pass rush ability, and now fans are starting to see why. McPherson had a PFF score of 83.2 against Houston, which is elite. He only played 25 snaps, however, which is a problem. As a point of comparison, Arden Walker played 64 snaps and Keaton Wade played 60 snaps.
Keys to Victory
- First-down discipline: Wyoming will pound the run. If CU keeps allowing 5 yards on first down, it’s going to be a long night. Win early downs, shrink their playbook.
- Protect the ball: Turnovers killed CU last week. Salter doesn’t have to be Superman, but he just can’t hand Wyoming short fields.
- Neutralize Brayden Johnson: He’s the Cowboys’ engine. Spread him out, make him defend sideline to sideline.
- Heat up Anderson: The Cowboys’ QB cracks under fire. CU’s pass rush has to cash in.
- Let speed eat: Omarrion Miller, Sincere Brown, Joseph Williams—get them touches in space. Explosive plays will follow.
Winning the Tailgate
BOTW (Beer of the Week): Buffalo Gold Golden Ale, Boulder Beer, Boulder, CO
From Colorado’s first craft brewery, Boulder Beer, Buffalo Gold has been a favorite of Buff fans since 1989. Today, Buffalo Gold is brewed exclusively at Boulder Social, one of BuffsBlog’s favorite places to catch a road game.
WOTW (Wine of the Week): T.N.T Cabernet Sauvignon, Oak Ridge Winery, Lido, CA. An affordable, delicious red, TNT is perfect for an early fall night in Boulder. It pairs perfectly with grilled meats or even a great tailgate burger or brat.
What Our Opponents Are Drinking: Wyoming Golden Ale, Sheridan, WY. Produced by Sheridan-based Black Tooth Brewing Company, Wyoming Golden Ale, the official craft beer of the Pokes, is a light bodied, straw-colored beer with “subtle fruity notes reminiscent of pineapple.”
And as always:
Go Buffs – Beat the Cowboys!
If you want to read more from the BuffsBlog Blogosphere, check out this article on next steps for CU football:
Go Enock. Go Pokes
Hey now! The Cowboys have a couple of alums that I do love…
Let’s be honest here. The score of the game in Laramie last week should’ve been 49-6. But as you said, Utah looked downright lost at times in the 1st half last week. And is always the case, Wyoming is a completely different team at War Memorial than they are on the road, so that added to the eventual final score. Wyoming’s defense is fairly stout upfront but has massive talent and experience deficiencies at the back. As for their offense, well it sucks like it always has. That’s just the Cowboy Way at this point.
On defense, the Buffs need to load the box and force Anderson to beat them with his arm.
He can’t.
On offense, the Buffs need to go vertical. Fvck the horizontal passing game. Open it up downfield and let our playmakers out talent the Wyoming DBs.
We won’t.
I expect a score very similar to the Delaware game. Let’s call it 30-13.