Bubble Watch: Can the CU Women’s Basketball Team Turn a Massive TCU Upset into a Selection Sunday Ticket?

[Editor’s Note:  If you’ve been hanging around this blog for a while, you know that I’d rather give you a deep-sea dive than a shallow splash. I’ve always ignored the “rules” about short attention spans and SEO bullshit because I believe great content should speak for itself, no matter how long it takes to tell the story. However, I’m a big believer in staying honest with you, and today I’m trying something a little different to see if I can make your life easier without thinning out the substance.

For today only, I’m breaking my usual deep dive into three separate, focused posts. The idea is to give you more control—letting you jump straight to the parts you care about most—while making the whole thing a bit more readable on the fly. This isn’t a pivot to clickbait.  I promise.  This site is the CU site that is an anti-clickbait blog experiment that focuses on quality vs. hollow stories that are solely designed to get you to click. Give these a read and let me know in the comments if you like this segmented approach or if you’d prefer I go back to the “one-giant-post” method later this week.

And thanks for reading and commenting.  I really appreciate it.]

Sunday afternoon in Boulder felt less like a basketball game and more like a defibrillator shock to a flatlining postseason resume.

Before tip-off against No. 14 TCU, the CU women were staring at the WBIT. In the parlance of bracketology, they were one of the “First Four Teams Out.” They had decent metrics and competed in one of the nation’s deepest conferences but lacked that one signature moment the Selection Committee could hang its hat on.

Then came Jade Masogayo’s improbable 3-point play with 2 seconds left in the game which lifted the Buffs to a come-from-behind 80–79 victory over the Horned Frogs.

Make no mistake: this wasn’t just a nice home win for JR Payne’s squad. This was a resume-anchoring, Quad 1 victory over a projected protected seed that fundamentally changed the complexion of CU’s profile overnight. [ESPN’s bracketology has TCU as a 3-seed in the tournament.]

Is CU now in the NCAA tournament?  

Let’s look at the cold, hard math as of Monday morning.

At 16–8 overall and 7–5 in the Big 12, the Buffs have likely vaulted from the precarious NET late 40s into the much more manageable 30s or low 40s range when the new data settles. In a Big 12 conference that is absolutely cannibalizing itself on a nightly basis, sitting in seventh place is actually a decent spot.

League metrics suggest the Big 12 is getting eight(ish) bids into the NCAA tournament. Currently, CU is clinging to one of those last spots.  Think “Last Four In” territory—perhaps looking at an 11-seed play-in game.

They are on the right side of the bubble today. Staying there requires navigating a treacherous final stretch.

The target number to avoid sweating on Selection Sunday is likely 20 wins. That means finding four victories across their final six regular-season games and the Big 12 tournament opener in Kansas City.

Here is the path to security:

1. Avoid the Landmines. Wednesday night at Houston and the Feb. 17 trip to Arizona are non-negotiable. These are Quad 3/4 type games. A loss to a sub-100 NET team right after beating TCU would be a disastrous regression to the mean that would undo Sunday’s good work.

2. Split the Swing Games If they handle the lower-tier teams, they likely need a 2–2 split against the meat of the remaining schedule to feel comfortable. The home date against ranked Texas Tech (Feb. 21) is massive. A win there probably locks them into the field regardless of what happens in Kansas City.

But go ahead and circle Feb. 24 against Utah in red ink. That is shaping up to be a classic “Bubble Elimination Game.” It’s a direct comparison opportunity for the NCAA selection committee. The winner likely punches their ticket, while the loser goes into the conference tournament needing help.

Colorado’s team struggles offensively and doesn’t have enough shooters.  The team is currently ranked 13^th in the Big 12 in total offense, scoring a little over 68 points per game.  The team misses the creativity and shooting from point guard Kennedy Sanders, who is now out for the season with a torn labrum. 

Defensively, however, the team is very good.  CU gives up only 61 points per game and allows opponents to shoot only 39.5%.  

CU has 5 players that average over 8 points per game, led by Desiree Wooten’s 12.4 points per game.  However, Wooten only shoots 36.4% from the field.  Jade Masogayo is CU’s 2^nd leading scorer at 12 ppg and she is averaging over 5 rebounds per game.  Zyanna Walker, CU’s defensive stopper, is averaging over 11 points per game, over 4 rebounds per game and 2.6 assists per game.  Freshman Logyn Greer is averaging nearly 10 points per game, with senior Anaelle Dutat averaging 8.1 points per game.  Dutat is also CU’s leading rebounder at 8 boards per game.  

Next up is a must-win game against Houston on Wednesday at 5:30 mountain on ESPN+.

If you want to read more from BuffsBlog (you know it), check out this story on Santana Hooper, CU’s most important (?) defensive player this upcoming season.

He’s 50lbs Undersized and Faster Than Your RB: Is This ‘Athletic Freak’ the Key to Colorado’s Defense?