[Editor’s Note: If you’ve been hanging around this blog for a while, you know that I’d rather give you a deep-sea dive than a shallow splash. I’ve always ignored the “rules” about short attention spans and SEO stuff because I believe great content should speak for itself, no matter how long it takes to tell the story. However, I’m a big believer in staying honest with you, and today I’m trying something a little different to see if I can make your life easier without thinning out the substance.
For today only, I’m breaking my usual deep dive into three separate, focused posts. The idea is to give you more control—letting you jump straight to the parts you care about most—while making the whole thing a bit more readable on the fly. This isn’t a pivot to clickbait. I promise. This site is the CU site that is an anti-clickbait blog experiment that focuses on quality vs. hollow stories that are solely designed to get you to click. Give these a read and let me know in the comments if you like this segmented approach or if you’d prefer I go back to the “one-giant-post” method later this week.
And thanks for reading and commenting. I really appreciate it.]
For the better part of two months, Colorado looked like a team that was going to make the Big 12’s preseason poll look silly.
Tad Boyle’s squad raced out to an 8-0 start, even picking up a trophy in Palm Springs with a Quad 1 win against Washington. It was the kind of early-season surge that usually has basketball fans dreaming of the Big Dance. But as CU hoops has seen too often over the years, the move from the “cupcake” portion of the schedule to the Big 12 gauntlet is less of a transition and more of a high-speed collision with a brick wall.
Since Big 12 play began in earnest, the Buffs have gone 4-7. And while a 14-10 record isn’t a death sentence – CU is probably an NIT team right now — the underlying numbers suggest that CU is a mediocre basketball team.
The problem isn’t the offense.
CU currently ranks 24th nationally in turnover percentage (14.0%). This is an incredible turnaround from last year, when CU couldn’t dribble the ball past the half court line without turning it over. Between junior Barrington Hargress (shooting a ridiculous 50.7% from deep) and freshman sensation Isaiah Johnson (130.2 Offensive Rating), the Buffs have a backcourt that can score with anyone in the country.
So, uhhhhh, John, why isn’t the team very good?
Because CU doesn’t defend the 3. At all.
Colorado’s defense is currently 328th in the country in Opponent 3P%. Read that again. Out of 360-plus Division I teams, there are only about 30 programs worse at defending the arc. Opponents are hitting 36.9% of their threes against the Buffs. In Big 12 play, that’s essentially like leaving the back door unlocked in a neighborhood full of world-class burglars.
| BuffsBlog Analytics | Value | D-I Rank |
| Adj. Offensive Efficiency | 119.2 | 53rd |
| Adj. Defensive Efficiency | 108.0 | 148th |
| Opponent 3P% | 36.9% | 328th |
| Turnover % | 14.0% | 24th |
This basketball team is bizarre. The Buffs are the 48th tallest team in the country, yet they rank 215th in block percentage. They are disciplined with the ball (24th in TO%), yet they force almost no mistakes on the other end (306th in non-steal turnover percentage). It’s a “polite” defense. And in a league that features the defensive intensity of Houston and Iowa State, being “polite” gets you a 30-point blowout in Ames, which is exactly what happened 2 weeks ago.
The personnel shift has been equally jarring. Isaiah Johnson is an emerging star. His ability to get to the line and finish (57.8% eFG%) is the only reason some of these conference games have stayed competitive. But the veteran core has largely vanished. Post Malone played zero minutes against Baylor and has struggled mightily when he has played. Alon Michaeli is struggling through a freshman wall, posting a 47.4% eFG% that makes it hard to keep him on the floor when the Buffs need a bucket.
KenPom currently projects Colorado to finish 16-15. That’s not good enough, and it may cost Tad Boyle his job. Tad Boyle has the pieces for a high-level offense, but unless he can figure out why a team with this much length is allowing every opponent to treat the perimeter like a lay-up line, CU is going to struggle to be competitive in the Big 12.
To clean your CU hoops palate, here’s a fun video of Isaiah Johnson from earlier in the season:
Want to read more from BuffsBlog? (yes, you do). Check out this story detailing the excitement from signing day last week.
Really interesting stats. I can’t figure out why such a long team can’t better defend the 3. You’d think length would make close outs more effective…..is it that the team doesn’t play hard enough? If that’s the case, then we should be looking at the end of the HCTB era at CU.
Playing hard is a skill. I know that’s a hot take, but I 100% believe it’s true. I don’t think many CU players have that skill.
Agree 100%.
I like the longer format personally. But this is still a great write-up, good content as always. This team is definitely confusing from a metrics standpoint. But watching them play I can’t help but draw comparisons to the 2017-18 team with Kin, Bey, and Schwartz. You could see the flashes with that team, but then they would go screw it all up the next week. Find the money to keep Johnson, Sanders, Hargress, Fawaz, and Holland here for another year and I think we’ll be pleasantly suprised for the 26-27 season.
Thanks for your vote!
After last years’ team hit the portal, an NIT bid would have been considered a huge accomplishment. I think most fans were expecting a rebuilding year. The early cupcake schedule and the win against Washington set us up for the Big 12 disappointment we should have seen coming.
I was a Tad Boyle apologist for many years because, who would take the job that would be better? Especially when CU did not / does not invest in basketball. But now, new AD, new MBB coach sounds good to me. In hindsight, we should have gone after Chris Beard. He went to Ole Miss for the SEC money, but that team was even worse than CU. It was a missed opportunity for sure.