Setting the Record Straight on Lewis’ Recruiting Ranking
In many of my interactions with CU fans, I’m told that Lewis was a 5-star “can’t miss” recruit.
This is incorrect. Lewis was not a 5-star QB coming out of high school. Was he considered he a high-level recruit? Definitely. But we need to dig a bit deeper if we’re going to try to project his college performance.
In August 2023, before his sophomore year, Lewis committed to USC. At the time of Lewis’ commitment to USC, he was ranked the #9 player in the 2026 high school class on the 247 composite (247 had him ranked #14 overall).
In January 2024, partway through his junior year of high school, Lewis announced he would graduate a full year early and enter the 2025 recruiting class. This was a calculated move, enabled by his strong academics and the class credits he’d accumulated. Reclassifying meant he would forgo a senior high school season, but it would allow him to start his college career sooner (and receive NIL sooner!)
Upon reclassifying, Lewis was ranked the #50 player nationally on the 247 composite. He was ranked the #6 QB nationally in the class, behind Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, Alabama’s Keelon Russell, Ohio State’s Tavien St. Clair, USC’s Husan Longstreet, and Auburn’s Duce Knight.
247 was less bullish on Lewis, ranking him the #126 player nationally in the 2025 class and the #10 QB (behind Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, Alabama’s Keelon Russell, Ohio State’s Tavien St. Clair, USC’s Husan Longstreet, Auburn’s Duce Knight, Maryland’s Malik Washington, Oregon’s Jaron Kraewe-Sagapolutele, Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor, and Missouri’s Matt Zollers.
[Quick edit: some folks have pointed out that Lewis fell in recruiting rankings only because of the classification, and that he’d be ranked #1 or #2 if he hadn’t reclassified. I don’t think that’s true. Lewis was initially ranked #8 on the natinonal composite even after reclassifying. He fell in the recruiting rankings from #8 to #50 on the composite. Similarly, he was initially ranked #14 on 247 even after reclassifying. He fall all the way to #126. Lewis fell in the rankings not because of the reclassification. Rather, there were real questions about his physical stength and size.]
Historical Projections for Lewis
Do you know who else was ranked the #6 QB in his class on 247?
Kaidon Salter, the #6 ranked QB in the 2021 class.
The #6 ranked QB in the 2024 class was Auburn’s Walker White, in 2023 was Arizona State’s Jaden Rashada, in 2022 was LSU’s Walker Howard, in 2021 was Tennessee’s Kaidon Salter, and in 2020 was Oregon’s Jay Butterfield.
With the exception of Salter, none of these players have had any success at the collegiate level. White transferred to Baylor, where he is a backup. Rashada transferred to Sacramento State, where he’s a backup. Howard transferred to the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, where he’s a backup. As you know, Salter transferred to Liberty and then Colorado. Butterfield transferred to San Jose State where he’s a backup.
Out of all these players, the most successful has been Liberty-turned-CU QB Salter.
I say all of this to remind CU viewers that Lewis is not viewed as a Bryce Underwood level prospect. He’s not a 5-star can’t miss prospect. Instead, he’s a high-level prospect at a position that history shows us is extremely difficult to project future success. In fact, I say this to remind fans that “success” might look an awful lot like CU’s current starting QB.
But What About Now?
The single line on Juju Lewis’ official bio that boggles the mind when potentially combined with “starting quarterback at Colorado”:
Juju Lewis was born September 21, 2007.
He just turned 18. These days it’s not uncommon for QB prospects to dally an extra year or even two in high school—OSU freshman QB Tavien St. Clair is more than a year older than Lewis. So Lewis isn’t just a freshman, he’s a freshman freshman. This is our temporary concern.
Freshman quarterbacks, even massively touted ones, generally do not play when they are freshmen-freshmen. MGoBlog’s Michael Elkon (as you should know, we are MASSIVE MGoBlog fans) evaluated super-elite five-star freshman QBs and came up with the following:
Now, even if we include Lewis in the realm of “super elite 5-star QBs” (of which he is not), it’s clear to see that only one of these guys can be said to have played particularly well: Trevor Lawrence. [Bryce Underwood is a freak in Ann Arbor, and he’s having a good year, but it’s too soon to call him a very good collegiate QB as a freshman freshman. Also, Underwood is only one month older than Lewis.]
Now if we expand the sample size to include high level 4-star QBs, we get better news. Corndog website Black 41 Flash Reverse has an utterly comprehensive rundown of touted freshman quarterback performance over the last 15 years. Check out the 36 chapter tome written at:
https://black41flashreverse.substack.com/p/does-this-ever-work-part-3-and-conclusions
(apparently there’s nothing to do in the Land o’ Corn except write about football!)
The upshot with a broader sample size than just the uber-elite 5-star QBs per Black 41:
“In reviewing the last 15 years of major-conference play … yeah, it almost always [works], in either the short or the long term. Of the 21 five-star [and 4+ star] quarterbacks to start at least six games in their true freshman year whom I surveyed in this study, eight played at an elite, all-conference level as true freshmen(Christian Hackenberg at Penn State, Deshaun Watson at Clemson, Josh Rosen at UCLA, Jalen Hurts at Alabama, Trevor Lawrence at Clemson, Jayden Daniels at Arizona State, Sam Howell at North Carolina, and Caleb Williams at Oklahoma), five played at an above-average-starter level as true freshmen (Matt Barkley at USC, Teddy Bridgewater at Louisville, Jake Browning at Washington, Jacob Eason at Georgia, and Jake Fromm at Georgia), four more played at an average-starter level as true freshmen (Braxton Miller at Ohio State, Brad Kaaya at Miami, JT Daniels at USC, and Bo Nix at Auburn), and only four played at a below-average level as true freshmen (Drew Lock at Missouri, Kellen Mond at Texas A&M, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Dante Moore at UCLA).”
Hey, great news for projecting freshman year success for Lewis! This is very positive, although again we’re arguably squinting at Lewis’ recruiting accolades if we’re including him in this cast of QBs.
Also, context matters quite a bit. Guys like Hurts, Lawrence, and Williams had excellent surrounding casts.
Lewis’ supporting cast? CU has a good offensive line and above average receiving core but no tight end, no fullback, below average running backs and real questions about offensive coordinator. This probably equates to a below-average surrounding cast relative to the talent level that many of Lewis’ peer QBs have been able to play with.
While six of the eight elite freshman quarterbacks played behind lines that were at least good to excellent, Lock, Thompson-Robinson, and Moore played behind three of the five lines offensive lines on this list that surrendered 130 or more pressures. And they struggled. Further, the line was one of the biggest reasons for Hackenberg, Nix and Daniels all to fall off in seasons immediately after their strong freshman years.
So if we look at the Buffs, you’ll see an offensive line that protects well. Jordan Seaton is a monster with a 93.6 (!) PFF pass blocking grade on the season. Other linemen have very good scores as well – Zarian McGill’s passblocking grade is 83.4, Zylon Crisler is 77.9, Xavier Hill is 76.8, and Larry Johnson III is 64. (Run blocking grades are not nearly as strong but that’s a different story for a different day).
Again, however, context matters. Part of the reason that CU’s offensive line’s pass blocking grades are so good is due to Salter’s escapability. Having a QB that can run and escape when mistakes are made – and to generate offense on designed runs – provides incredible valuable for a team (and its linemen’s pass blocking grades.)
So What Should Deion Sanders Do?
History tells us that QBs ranked about #6 nationally have struggled. It also tells us that uber-5-star freshman QBs have struggled, with Trevor Lawrence as a notable exception.
However, if we broaden the sample size to include more touted (but not uber touted) QBs, we see some hope for Lewis. And the ironic thing, after all of this, is that the most likely career projection for Lewis is probably something similar to Kaidon Salter’s career. Talk about a strange world.
Who would I start this week against Iowa State? Probably Kaidon Salter. Despite his issues, I still think he gives CU the best chance to win because of his escapability and running ability. Lose on Saturday, however, and CU’s bowl eligibility is hanging by an (even more bare) thread. At that point it may make sense to bring in the freshman QB to see what CU has. CU has made a huge financial investment in Lewis, and having several games to see if he has what it takes to lead CU next year at its undisputed #1 QB has some real value.
Even if it’s likely he turns into the same level of player as the one he’s replacing.
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Great stuff here.
QB recruiting is a crapshoot. Lewis is a lottery ticket, that’s it. I do agree that CU fans probably think he’s more highly touted from a recruiting standpoint than he was, but he’s still worth playing because Salter just isn’t it. Let’s see what we have.
I suspect you’ll get your wish and that CU starts Lewis this weekend.
The thing that strikes me most is as follows: Kayden Salter’s stats at liberty University, where Garner based on his abilities, playing against a consistently lower level of talent on a week by week year by year basis. Even though the big 12 is not at the level of the Big Ten and the SEC it is chock full of very fast and hard hitting Players! When soldier drops back, he constantly backpedal putting his offensive line in jeopardy because he doesn’t stay in a well formed pocket! Because the back pedals, he generally either has to throw off of his back foot or find himself scrambling, and then throwing on the run without effectively, squirting his shoulders and positioning his feet for maximizing the opportunity. Lastly, the thing that I see is most concerning when he is under distress is that he cannot make a decision in a timely manner. I’ve watched him look past wide open receivers only to run all the way to the sideline, and then in desperation through a lastgasp effort, which sometimes does not have the result we’re hoping for. Everybody wants to be Patrick Mahomes and throw a three-quarter arm unless you’re 65 and your loft in that ball so you drop it over the top of that safety or deep set linebacker you’re gonna have problems! Let juju play and either get him ready for next year or find out that you need to do a really hard-core back search and get the player you need at that position. I’d rather find out that juju Luis is just another Kayden Salter now and use the off-season to find the product you need then to wait until next year and be six games deep into a season with no hope of even making a bowl.
I do agree that the #1 reason to start Lewis now is to see if you’ve got something with him or whether you need to dip back into the QB transfer market next year.
I still think we should start Salter, but it’s a legit plus in the “start Lewis” ledger.
Sorry for the typos and or the word Miss usage! I was dictating then and dictating now. And Siri and I don’t always see eye to eye on what words I’m using! I think you just turned juju loose from the first snap of the game and let them develop! I don’t like the idea of bringing him in behind Kayden Salter because we already know what the result has been and probably will be with Kayden Salter! I’m sorry to be that way, but to me it is what it is. The young man’s two and four. And I will simply say in games where we still had a chance to put it away and or tie the score he fell far short of the mark missing open receivers, seen, and then missing open receivers and consequently, making very bad decisions! For me, put juju in now get him ready to take the first nap Help him develop in between each offensive series coaching the heck out of him and doing literal film, steady as they all do on the sidelines so it can be better prepared the next time he walks back onto the field. For me it’s juju or bust and I’d rather bust now like I said and find who’s the next best option for next year, if juju does not look like he’s at this level! God bless you good sir and thank you for your response
Great stuff.
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Great stuff. I was not sold on Lewis being QB1 this season but let’s remember the kid won state in GA’s highest classification as the starting QB as a freshman. Think of it as a freshman QB leading a CO 5A school to the state championship and even that would be pretty rare here in CO so doing that in GA has to be impressive. I think Lewis’ school wasn’t that great in football before he joined the team as a freshman and that might be a reason he was highly touted. It’s still a big jump in the level of play from the top HS classification in GA to the Big 12.
CU has a challenging 2026 non conference schedule in road trips to Northwestern and Georgia Tech in addition to Big 12 play. Lewis might have some growing pains next season but 2027 would be a good year to see him break out.